Chiefs vs Commanders: Mariota’s Rushing Threat Stands Out in Week 8 MNF Showdown

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 27, 2025 — a game that could redefine both teams’ playoff trajectories. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. EDT, and while the Chiefs are heavy favorites, the real story isn’t just who’ll win — it’s whether Marcus Mariota, stepping in for the injured Jayden Daniels, can exploit a surprising weakness in Kansas City’s defense: quarterback scrambles.

Chiefs as Favorites — But Not Without Flaws

The Kansas City Chiefs enter this matchup at 4-3, riding high on Patrick Mahomes’ continued brilliance and a high-powered offense that’s averaged 29.4 points per game. But their defense? It’s been surprisingly porous. In just seven games, they’ve surrendered three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks — a stat that would make most defensive coordinators sweat. The Washington Commanders, at 3-4, aren’t known for explosive passing, but with Marcus Mariota under center, they’ve become a sneaky rushing threat. In his two starts, Mariota has rushed eight times for 80 yards and a touchdown — and that’s against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that’s far more disciplined than Kansas City’s has been lately.

Mariota’s Unexpected Role

Here’s the twist: Marcus Mariota isn’t just filling in. He’s becoming a tactical weapon. At 31, he’s not the same athlete who led Tennessee to the playoffs, but he’s still got enough mobility to stretch defenses. And with Washington’s running backs struggling — Antonio Gibson has averaged just 3.1 yards per carry this season — Mariota’s legs might be the Commanders’ most reliable offensive tool. Analysts at Covers.com aren’t just noting this; they’re betting on it. Their pick? Mariota to score a rushing TD at +400 odds on bet365. Why? Because Kansas City’s linebackers have been caught out of position on zone-reads, and their safeties have been slow to react to QB scrambles. Three times this season, opposing quarterbacks have broken free for touchdowns. Mariota doesn’t need to be perfect. He just needs to be dangerous for one play.

Rashee Rice: The Chiefs’ Quiet Breakout Star

While Mariota’s story is one of resilience, the Chiefs’ Rashee Rice is writing a new chapter entirely. The 2024 second-round pick has quietly become Mahomes’ most trusted target in the red zone. With Travis Kelce drawing double teams and Xavier Worthy stretching the field, Rice has slipped into the seams — and found the end zone four times in his last five games. CBS Sports and the Action Network both list him as their top anytime touchdown pick at -105 odds. That’s not a fluke. He’s averaged 7.3 targets per game over that span and has caught 80% of his passes inside the 20-yard line. The Commanders’ secondary has been inconsistent, especially in the slot. If Mahomes has time — and Kansas City’s offensive line holds up — Rice could be the difference-maker.

Betting Odds Tell a Deeper Story

The point spread sits at -12.5 for the Chiefs, with a 47-point over/under. That’s a massive line — and it’s not just about talent. It’s about market psychology. The public is all-in on Kansas City, with 78% of bets on the Chiefs to win outright. But here’s the nuance: BetMGM’s predictive model gives the Commanders a 51.6% chance to cover the spread. Why? Because Washington’s offense, while limited, is designed to eat clock. They’ve led the league in time of possession over the last three weeks. If Mariota can keep drives alive with scrambles and short passes, and if Washington’s defense can force a few three-and-outs, this game could be closer than the odds suggest. Even a 27-21 final would cover for Washington. And with the Chiefs’ defense giving up 4.7 yards per carry to QBs, don’t be shocked if Mariota finds the end zone on a 12-yard run with two minutes left.

What’s at Stake?

For the Chiefs, this is about momentum. At 4-3, they’re clinging to second place in the AFC West behind the Denver Broncos. A loss here, especially to a team with a losing record, could spark doubts about their playoff readiness. For Washington, it’s about survival. At 3-4, they’re just one game behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. A win — even a gritty, ugly one — would keep them alive. And with Daniels still sidelined until at least Week 11, Mariota isn’t just a placeholder. He’s the catalyst for their identity right now.

Key Player Props to Watch

• Rashee Rice (KC WR): -105 to score anytime (bet365, FanDuel)
• Travis Kelce (KC TE): -105 to score anytime (FanDuel)
• Marcus Mariota (WAS QB): +400 to rush for a TD (bet365)
• Isiah Pacheco (KC RB): +160 to score anytime
• Xavier Worthy (KC WR): +165 to score anytime

Notice something? The Chiefs’ top three touchdown threats are all priced at -105 or better. That’s a signal — the market believes Kansas City will dominate. But the Commanders’ only viable threat? A 31-year-old backup quarterback who’s scored 19 rushing TDs in his career. That’s not a long shot. That’s a calculated gamble.