The Kansas City Chiefs host the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 27, 2025 — a game that could redefine both teams’ playoff trajectories. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. EDT, and while the Chiefs are heavy favorites, the real story isn’t just who’ll win — it’s whether Marcus Mariota, stepping in for the injured Jayden Daniels, can exploit a surprising weakness in Kansas City’s defense: quarterback scrambles.
Chiefs as Favorites — But Not Without Flaws
The Kansas City Chiefs enter this matchup at 4-3, riding high on Patrick Mahomes’ continued brilliance and a high-powered offense that’s averaged 29.4 points per game. But their defense? It’s been surprisingly porous. In just seven games, they’ve surrendered three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks — a stat that would make most defensive coordinators sweat. The Washington Commanders, at 3-4, aren’t known for explosive passing, but with Marcus Mariota under center, they’ve become a sneaky rushing threat. In his two starts, Mariota has rushed eight times for 80 yards and a touchdown — and that’s against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that’s far more disciplined than Kansas City’s has been lately.Mariota’s Unexpected Role
Here’s the twist: Marcus Mariota isn’t just filling in. He’s becoming a tactical weapon. At 31, he’s not the same athlete who led Tennessee to the playoffs, but he’s still got enough mobility to stretch defenses. And with Washington’s running backs struggling — Antonio Gibson has averaged just 3.1 yards per carry this season — Mariota’s legs might be the Commanders’ most reliable offensive tool. Analysts at Covers.com aren’t just noting this; they’re betting on it. Their pick? Mariota to score a rushing TD at +400 odds on bet365. Why? Because Kansas City’s linebackers have been caught out of position on zone-reads, and their safeties have been slow to react to QB scrambles. Three times this season, opposing quarterbacks have broken free for touchdowns. Mariota doesn’t need to be perfect. He just needs to be dangerous for one play.Rashee Rice: The Chiefs’ Quiet Breakout Star
While Mariota’s story is one of resilience, the Chiefs’ Rashee Rice is writing a new chapter entirely. The 2024 second-round pick has quietly become Mahomes’ most trusted target in the red zone. With Travis Kelce drawing double teams and Xavier Worthy stretching the field, Rice has slipped into the seams — and found the end zone four times in his last five games. CBS Sports and the Action Network both list him as their top anytime touchdown pick at -105 odds. That’s not a fluke. He’s averaged 7.3 targets per game over that span and has caught 80% of his passes inside the 20-yard line. The Commanders’ secondary has been inconsistent, especially in the slot. If Mahomes has time — and Kansas City’s offensive line holds up — Rice could be the difference-maker.
Betting Odds Tell a Deeper Story
The point spread sits at -12.5 for the Chiefs, with a 47-point over/under. That’s a massive line — and it’s not just about talent. It’s about market psychology. The public is all-in on Kansas City, with 78% of bets on the Chiefs to win outright. But here’s the nuance: BetMGM’s predictive model gives the Commanders a 51.6% chance to cover the spread. Why? Because Washington’s offense, while limited, is designed to eat clock. They’ve led the league in time of possession over the last three weeks. If Mariota can keep drives alive with scrambles and short passes, and if Washington’s defense can force a few three-and-outs, this game could be closer than the odds suggest. Even a 27-21 final would cover for Washington. And with the Chiefs’ defense giving up 4.7 yards per carry to QBs, don’t be shocked if Mariota finds the end zone on a 12-yard run with two minutes left.What’s at Stake?
For the Chiefs, this is about momentum. At 4-3, they’re clinging to second place in the AFC West behind the Denver Broncos. A loss here, especially to a team with a losing record, could spark doubts about their playoff readiness. For Washington, it’s about survival. At 3-4, they’re just one game behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. A win — even a gritty, ugly one — would keep them alive. And with Daniels still sidelined until at least Week 11, Mariota isn’t just a placeholder. He’s the catalyst for their identity right now.
Key Player Props to Watch
- Rashee Rice (KC WR): -105 to score anytime (bet365, FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce (KC TE): -105 to score anytime (FanDuel)
- Marcus Mariota (WAS QB): +400 to rush for a TD (bet365)
- Isiah Pacheco (KC RB): +160 to score anytime
- Xavier Worthy (KC WR): +165 to score anytime
Notice something? The Chiefs’ top three touchdown threats are all priced at -105 or better. That’s a signal — the market believes Kansas City will dominate. But the Commanders’ only viable threat? A 31-year-old backup quarterback who’s scored 19 rushing TDs in his career. That’s not a long shot. That’s a calculated gamble.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Marcus Mariota being targeted for a rushing touchdown pick?
Mariota has 19 career rushing touchdowns and has already scored one on the ground in his two starts this season. The Chiefs have allowed three rushing TDs to quarterbacks in just seven games — the most in the NFL. With Washington’s running game struggling, Mariota’s mobility becomes their most reliable offensive weapon, making him a value play at +400 odds.
How reliable is the Chiefs’ defense against the run?
Kansas City’s defense ranks 19th in the NFL in yards per carry (4.6), and they’ve given up 14 rushing first downs in their last three games. More alarming: they’ve allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks — a sign of poor gap discipline and slow pursuit. While they’re strong against traditional running backs, they’re vulnerable to mobile QBs who can extend plays.
Why is Rashee Rice favored over Travis Kelce for a touchdown?
Though Kelce is a legend, he’s been double-teamed in 80% of red-zone snaps this season. Rice, meanwhile, has seen 14 targets in the red zone over the last five games and converted 6 of them into touchdowns. He’s more consistently open, and the Commanders’ secondary lacks a true slot corner. His -105 odds reflect his current role, not just his reputation.
Can the Commanders realistically cover the -12.5 spread?
Yes — and BetMGM’s model gives them a 51.6% chance. Washington’s offense can control the clock with Mariota’s scrambles and short passes. If they hold Kansas City to field goals instead of touchdowns — and force at least one turnover — a 27-21 or 30-24 final would cover. The Chiefs have lost three games by 10+ points this season, so they’re not immune to sluggish performances.
What’s the impact of Jayden Daniels’ absence on Washington’s strategy?
Daniels is a dynamic passer with elite mobility, but Mariota brings a more conservative, run-heavy approach. Washington’s offense has shifted from vertical threats to short, high-percentage passes and designed QB runs. This change reduces explosive plays but increases time of possession — a trade-off that could neutralize Kansas City’s explosive offense if executed well.
How does this game affect playoff chances for both teams?
A win for Kansas City puts them at 5-3 and keeps them in the AFC West race, while a loss could open the door for Denver or Las Vegas. For Washington, a win lifts them to 4-4 and keeps them within striking distance of the NFC East lead. A loss drops them to 3-5, making their playoff hopes nearly impossible without a major turnaround. This game isn’t just about pride — it’s about survival.
Amrit Moghariya
October 28, 2025 AT 19:50 PMSo the Chiefs’ defense is giving up QB scrambles like it’s Black Friday sales? Honestly, I’m not surprised. They’ve been coasting on Mahomes’ magic for years. Now they’re getting exposed by a 31-year-old backup who’s basically running a 2017 Titans offense in 2025. Mariota’s not flashy, but he’s smart - and that’s all you need when the defense is asleep at the wheel.
shubham gupta
October 30, 2025 AT 03:42 AMThe Chiefs’ defensive line has been out of position on zone reads since Week 3. It’s not just Mariota - it’s the scheme. They’re playing too wide, and their linebackers are chasing screens instead of containing the edge. This isn’t luck. It’s systemic. Washington’s coaching staff knows this. They’re not trying to win with passes. They’re trying to win with clock control and one big run.
Gajanan Prabhutendolkar
October 31, 2025 AT 15:42 PMLet’s be real - this whole narrative is a distraction. The NFL is rigged. The Chiefs are the league’s pet team. They get the soft schedule, the favorable officiating, and now the media’s pushing Mariota as some underdog hero just to make the game ‘interesting.’ Meanwhile, Rashee Rice is getting -105 odds because the league wants Mahomes to look unstoppable. The Commanders don’t stand a chance. This is PR, not football.
ashi kapoor
November 2, 2025 AT 06:50 AMOkay but imagine being Marcus Mariota. 31 years old, backup QB, no one expected you to be the guy - and now you’re the only reason your team still has a pulse? I’m low-key rooting for him. Also, the Chiefs’ defense looks like they’re playing in slow motion. Like, why are the safeties just watching him run? Are they waiting for him to ask permission? 😅
Yash Tiwari
November 2, 2025 AT 14:23 PMIt is not merely a matter of athleticism or scheme; it is a metaphysical failure of defensive cohesion. The Chiefs’ linebackers, conditioned by years of passive aggression and overreliance on Mahomes’ heroics, have developed a cognitive dissonance toward the concept of QB mobility as a legitimate threat. They perceive it as a novelty, not a tactical imperative. This is not a flaw in personnel - it is a flaw in philosophy. Mariota, as a living embodiment of the old-school dual-threat archetype, is merely exposing the ideological bankruptcy of modern NFL defensive doctrine.
Mansi Arora
November 2, 2025 AT 23:20 PMmariaota is gonna score and then the chiefs will lose becuase they cant stop him and then mahomes will throw 3 picks and the whole team will cry and the coach will blame the oline again 😭
Amit Mitra
November 3, 2025 AT 14:08 PMI grew up watching football in Delhi, where the game was always secondary to cricket - but even I can see the poetry here. Mariota, once the golden boy of college football, now the quiet warrior of a struggling franchise, using his legs not out of desperation, but discipline. The Chiefs’ defense? They’re built for speed, not patience. And patience, my friends, is the quietest form of rebellion.
sneha arora
November 4, 2025 AT 19:20 PMmariaota gooo!!! 🥹💪 i love underdogs and he’s literally the definition 💖 the chiefs defense looks so confused like ‘wait… he’s not supposed to be this good??’ 🤭 i’m crying i’m so excited for this game!!
Sagar Solanki
November 5, 2025 AT 16:11 PMStatistical outlier alert. The Chiefs’ 3 QB rushing TDs allowed in 7 games is statistically insignificant at the population level - but the media has weaponized it. The +400 odds on Mariota are a behavioral economics trap. The public overweights recent anomalies and underestimates regression to the mean. Meanwhile, the Commanders’ time of possession metric is inflated due to garbage time against inferior opponents. This isn’t a strategic innovation - it’s a mirage.
Siddharth Madan
November 6, 2025 AT 04:12 AMMariota’s been around a while. He’s not trying to be the next Mahomes. He’s just trying to win. And sometimes that’s enough.
Nathan Roberson
November 7, 2025 AT 08:44 AMbro the chiefs defense is just vibing rn like they’re at a party and someone brought a weird guest. mariota walks in with his hoodie on and just starts running and they’re like ‘hold up… he’s a qb??’ 😂
Thomas Mathew
November 9, 2025 AT 07:47 AMThey say football is war. But this? This is Shakespeare. A broken system. A fading king. A quiet man with a plan. The Chiefs think they’ve seen it all - but they’ve never seen a man who’s been discarded, forgotten, and still refuses to kneel. Mariota isn’t playing for the Commanders. He’s playing for every backup who was told he was too old, too slow, too done. Tonight, he writes the final act.
Andrew Malick
November 9, 2025 AT 09:58 AMLet me clarify something: the Chiefs’ defense isn’t bad - they’re just playing a different game. They’re baiting teams into the run, knowing Mahomes will outscore anyone in the 4th quarter. Mariota’s runs aren’t a threat - they’re a trap. If Washington keeps feeding it, they’re playing into Kansas City’s hands. The real story? The Chiefs will win 34-27… and then the narrative will shift to how ‘smart’ their defense was.
will haley
November 9, 2025 AT 11:51 AMimagine if mariota scores and the crowd just… goes silent. like no one knows how to react. then mahomes throws a pick and everyone just stares at their phones.
Laura Hordern
November 11, 2025 AT 04:44 AMI’ve watched Mariota since his Tennessee days. He’s got this calm, almost bored energy - like he’s already seen this movie before. And now, in this weird, late-career renaissance, he’s not trying to be flashy. He’s just… efficient. That’s why this works. The Chiefs are all about fireworks. Mariota? He’s a slow-burn candle. And candles don’t need to be loud to light up a dark room.
Amrit Moghariya
November 12, 2025 AT 06:33 AMAnd now the author’s comment: ‘You guys are overthinking it. Mariota’s not a genius. He’s just fast enough to get the first down when everyone’s looking at the receivers. And the Chiefs? They’re just tired. This isn’t a scheme. It’s a breakdown. But hey - if he scores, I’ll buy everyone a beer.’