Why Dembele tops the Ballon d'Or 2025 odds
Since his €45 million switch to Paris Saint‑Germain, Ousmane Dembele has turned heads with 28 league goals and 12 assists in the 2024/25 campaign. His blend of pace, dribbling and work‑rate helped PSG secure a domestic double and reach the Champions League semi‑finals, the kind of high‑stakes performances that swing bookmakers.
Beyond the numbers, Dembele has delivered clutch moments – a late winner against Marseille, a brace in the Paris derby and a decisive play in the knockout stages. Those flash‑in‑the‑pan highlights are exactly what the Ballon d'Or voters love. Combine that with PSG’s surge in both Ligue 1 and Europe, and the betting odds of 1/3 start to make sense.
Other frontrunners and PSG’s strong presence
Barcelona’s teenage sensation Lamine Yamal is the next big name on the list. At 9/4 odds, his 14 goals and 9 assists have made him a darling of the media, but he still trails Dembele’s consistency. Raphinha of Barcelona rounds out the top three at 10/1, while Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah sits at 12/1, reflecting his continued scoring prowess.
PSG’s influence runs deep. Vitinha (20/1), Nuno Mendes (50/1) and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma (within the top twenty) all appear in the rankings, underscoring the club’s dominance across positions. Even Kylian Mbappé, now at Real Madrid, has slipped to eighth place, while his teammate Vinícius Júnior sits at 15th.
Defenders and goalkeepers are not left out. Inter Milan’s Alessandro Bastoni, Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk and PSG’s Achraf Hakimi feature among the top‑ranked defenders, while Donnarumma represents the elite of goalkeepers.
- Ousmane Dembele – 1/3
- Lamine Yamal – 9/4
- Raphinha – 10/1
- Mohamed Salah – 12/1
- Vitinha – 20/1
English talents also have a footprint: Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice all sit inside the top twenty, showing the award’s global spread.
Ultimately, the 2025 Ballon d'Or will distil a year of dazzling attacks, solid defenses and a few unforgettable moments. With Dembele’s form still humming, the odds suggest he’s the one to watch, but the race remains wide open as the season’s final weeks unfold.
Phillip Cullinane
September 22, 2025 AT 23:33 PMWhen we deconstruct Ousmane Dembélé's 2024/25 statistical output, the multilayered narrative emerges beyond mere goal tallies; his expected goals per 90 (xG/90) ranks among the elite tiers of Ligue 1 forwards, and his assist generation per 90 (xA/90) reflects a sophisticated spatial awareness that many analysts label as 'positional versatility'.
His high-pressing involvement, quantified through progressive passes into the final third, underscores a work-rate index that dovetails seamlessly with PSG's tactical schema, wherein the transitional phase is accelerated by his sprint bursts.
Furthermore, Dembélé's dribble success rate, hovering around 68%, signifies a retained ability to destabilize defensive structures, a metric that betting markets often embed within their proprietary risk-adjusted models.
The convergence of these advanced analytics with his clutch moments-particularly the decisive strike against Marseille-creates a composite performance envelope that is both quantifiable and narratively compelling.
From a systemic perspective, his role as a catalyst in the attacking third aligns with the concept of a 'dual-threat winger', capable of both creating and converting high-probability chances, thereby elevating his contribution to the Expected Points (xP) accrued by PSG.
In the realm of peer comparison, the differential between Dembélé's per-90 metrics and those of his contemporaries, such as Lamine Yamal, is statistically significant, suggesting a higher variance in outcome potential that bookmakers are quick to incorporate.
Beyond the numbers, there is an intangible element often described as 'footballing IQ', manifested through his decision-making on the ball, timed runs, and off-the-ball positioning, which collectively fortify his candidacy for elite individual accolades.
Moreover, the psychometric assessments from recent player performance surveys indicate a heightened confidence index, correlating positively with his on-pitch efficacy during high-stakes fixtures, such as the Champions League semi-finals.
When one examines his contribution to PSG's domestic double through a win probability added (WPA) lens, the marginal impact is appreciable, reinforcing the argument that his influence transcends traditional goal/assist tallies.
In sum, the sophisticated blend of advanced metrics, contextual performance highlights, and psychological resilience constructs a robust case for Dembélé's positioning as the preeminent favorite in the Ballon d'Or betting markets.